Autonomous Bus Market Analysis North America, APAC, Europe, Middle East and Africa, South America - US, China, Japan, Germany, UK - Size and Forecast 2024-2028

Autonomous Bus Market Forecast 2024-2028 

The autonomous bus market size is forecast to increase by USD 2.29 billion, at a CAGR of 21.86% between 2023 and 2028. 

The market's expansion hinges on various factors, notably the rapid advancements in autonomous vehicle corridors. These corridors facilitate safe testing and deployment of autonomous vehicles, propelling the market growth. Additionally, increasing investments in autonomous mobility technologies bolster the market, fostering innovation and expanding the scope of automatic vehicle applications. Favorable guidelines and policies supporting automatic vehicle development also play a pivotal role, encouraging companies to invest in research and development. These regulatory frameworks provide a conducive environment for testing, deployment, and public acceptance of automatic vehicles, driving the market forward and shaping the future of transportation. The report provides market size, historical data spanning from 2018 - 2022, and future projections, all presented in terms of value in USD billion for each of the mentioned segments.

What will be the Size of the Market During the Forecast Period?

For More Highlights About this Report, Download Free Sample in a Minute 

Market Dynamic and Customer Landscape

The market is driven by factors such as the increasing focus on safety improvement through technologies like ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) and Sensors, the rising demand for electric or clean energy-powered vehicles to address environmental concerns, and the need for public transportation solutions to tackle traffic congestion. However, challenges like ensuring seamless traffic conditions, developing efficient self-driving technologies with Artificial Intelligence, and overcoming regulatory hurdles for Autonomous buses pose significant hurdles to industry growth. Our researchers analyzed the data with 2023 as the base year, along with the key drivers, trends, and challenges. A holistic analysis of drivers will help companies refine their marketing strategies to gain a competitive advantage.

Key Market Driver

Growing investments in autonomous mobility are notably driving the market. The global market is mainly driven by growing investments in automatic or self-driving vehicles. In addition, in recent years, many autonomous OEMs, autonomous vehicle technology developers, and system integrators have been investing a significant amount of capital in driverless mobility technology.

Moreover, the market is witnessing several mergers and acquisitions, which are becoming an important enabler for market growth. For instance, in May 2022, USD 5 billion investment in mobility technologies, such as automatic vehicles and robotics, in the US by 2025. Furthermore, the company is also pursuing automatic technology through Motional, a joint venture with Aptive, a mobile technology startup based in the US. Hence, such factors are driving the market during the forecast period.

Key Market Trends

An increase in the launch of new autonomous buses is an emerging trend in the market. The global market is witnessing technological developments, resulting in new product developments. In addition, advances in the development of new automatic buses are primarily attributed to the increasing focus on safe and reliable autonomous driving.

For example, in May 2023, the UK's first full-sized self-driving bus was launched as part of a government-sponsored automatic vehicle initiative. In addition, in the same month, five single-deck automatic buses, each monitored and manned by a safety driver, were operated in and around the Edinburgh region as part of the Project CAVForth experiment, which is supported by the UK Governments Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CCAV). Hence, such factors are driving the market during the forecast period.

Major Market Challenge

Reliability and safety concerns over on-road driving of autonomous vehicles is a major challenge hindering the market. Safety quotient and reliability concerns are two of the main concerns surrounding autonomous vehicles. In addition, the sensors and systems that deliver vehicle automation need to be tuned accurately to avoid false positives. Furthermore, improper tuning of the automatic vehicle technology system may create unwanted bottlenecks for other vehicles and could lead to on-road collisions.

Moreover, in recent years, there have been several cases of on-road collisions involving self-driving technology. In addition, automatic vehicles in the autopilot mode fail to recognize a fast-approaching vehicle, resulting in a high-speed collision and the death of the driver. Therefore, such cases indicated the safety risks associated with automatic driving. Hence, such factors are hindering the market during the forecast period.

Market Customer Landscape

The market forecasting report includes the adoption lifecycle of the market, covering from the innovator’s stage to the laggard’s stage. It focuses on adoption rates in different regions based on penetration. Furthermore, the report also includes key purchase criteria and drivers of price sensitivity to help companies evaluate and develop their market growth analysis strategies.

 Customer Landscape

Who are the Major Market Companies?

Companies are implementing various strategies, such as strategic alliances, partnerships, mergers and acquisitions, geographical expansion, and product/service launches, to enhance their presence in the market.

Aptiv Plc: The company offers autonomous buses namely, Volvo 7900 Electric bus, which is equipped with numerous sensors and navigation controls managed by a comprehensive artificial intelligence AI system included in the Volvo Autonomous Research Platform.

The market research and growth report also includes detailed analyses of the competitive landscape of the market and information about 20 market companies, including:

• Aurrigo
• BYD Co. Ltd.
• Coast Autonomous Inc.
• DeepBlue Technology Shanghai Co. Ltd.
• Easymile SAS
• Lilee Technology Inc.
• Mercedes Benz Group AG
• Navya SA
• NFI Group Inc.
• Proterra Inc.
• Robert Bosch GmbH
• Toyota Motor Corp.
• Transdev Group SA
• Xiamen King Long United Automotive Industry Co. Ltd.
• AB Volvo
• Baidu Apollo Network Beijing Limited
• Continental AG
• Yutong Bus Co. Ltd.
• ZF Friedrichshafen AG

Qualitative and quantitative analysis of companies has been conducted to help clients understand the wider business environment as well as the strengths and weaknesses of key market players. Data is qualitatively analyzed to categorize companies as pure play, category-focused, industry-focused, and diversified; it is quantitatively analyzed to categorize companies as dominant, leading, strong, tentative, and weak.

What is the Largest-Growing Segments in the Market?

The market is experiencing rapid growth and segmentation driven by various key factors. Advanced technologies like Ultrasonic sensors, LIDARs, and ADAS are revolutionizing the industry by enhancing safety, efficiency, and performance. Leading manufacturers such as New Flyer, Gillig, Novabus, Bluebird, Thomas Built Buses, and Proterra are at the forefront of producing electric and clean energy-powered autonomous buses, marking a significant shift towards environmentally sustainable transportation solutions. One of the primary focuses is on safety improvement, integrating artificial intelligence and AL algorithms to optimize the field of view and sensing capabilities. These technologies enable autonomous buses to navigate through urban and suburban areas efficiently, mitigating traffic congestion and improving traffic conditions. The market also emphasizes mobility as a service, offering on-demand services and last-mile connectivity to enhance public transportation solutions. With the continuous evolution of self-driving technologies and collaboration with technology providers like Schaeffer, the Autonomous Bus Market is poised for substantial growth, catering to the increasing demand for efficient and sustainable public transit options.

The diesel segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period. The diesel segment, fueled by internal combustion engines, continues to be a vital component of public transportation. Besides the rising popularity of electric alternatives, diesel buses offer distinct advantages. Thus, diesel-powered buses continue to hold their position in the market due to their distinct advantages.

Get a glance at the market contribution of various segments Download the PDF Sample

The diesel segment was the largest segment and was valued at USD 330.05 million in 2018. Moreover, autonomous buses play a crucial role in addressing various challenges. In addition, they help mitigate the impact of driver shortages in public transportation. Furthermore, by reducing labor costs, they contribute to minimizing their overall operational expenditure; while electric buses are often adopted for reducing vehicular pollution, autonomous diesel buses can also contribute by optimizing routes and reducing idle time. Hence, such factors are fuelling the growth of this segment which in turn drives the market during the forecast period.

Which are the Key Regions for the Market?

For more insights on the market share of various regions Download PDF Sample now!

North America is estimated to contribute 40% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period. Technavio’s analysts have elaborately explained the regional trends and drivers that shape the market during the forecast period. The market in the region is expected to grow at a significant growth rate with the US is the primary contributor to the revenue generation of the market in North America.  In addition, this is because the country is home to numerous vendors that develop autonomous vehicles, including buses.

Moreover, the increase in M&A activities and partnerships in the field of vehicle autonomy is driving developments in the autonomous bus market in the region. In addition, the presence of well-developed road infrastructure and connectivity solutions, along with the development of autonomous technologies by automotive OEMs, has made North America a hub for pilot testing programs for autonomous vehicles. Furthermore, the growing traffic congestion in the region is leading to an increase in the time that commuters spend on roads. Therefore, the interest in autonomous technologies is increasing among people, which is fueling developments in the field of vehicle autonomy. Hence, such factors are driving the market in North America during the forecast period.

Segment Overview

The market report forecasts market growth by revenue at global, regional & country levels and provides an analysis of the latest trends and growth opportunities from 2018 to 2028. 

• Propulsion Outlook 
  • Diesel
  • Electric
  • Hybrid
• Type Outlook
  • Semi-autonomous
  • Fully-autonomous
• Region Outlook 
  • North America
    • The U.S.
    • Canada
  • Europe
    • U.K.
    • Germany
    • France
    • Rest of Europe
  • APAC
    • China
    • India
  • South America
    • Chile
    • Argentina
    • Brazil
  • Middle East & Africa
    • Saudi Arabia
    • South Africa
    • Rest of the Middle East & Africa

Market Analyst Overview

The market is experiencing rapid growth driven by advancements in self-driving technologies and increasing demand for eco-friendly transportation options. Key players like New Flyer, Gillig, Novabus, Bluebird, and Thomas Built Buses are leading the way with innovative solutions. ADAS features such as Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB), Blind Spot Detection (BSD), and Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) enhance safety for passengers and pedestrians, reducing the risk of incidents. Technology providers like Optimus Ride, Local Motors, and Schaeffler are focusing on electric propulsion systems and clean energy sources to minimize GHG emissions and promote sustainable mobility. These efforts align with consumer preferences for eco-friendly and efficient transportation.

Moreover, despite challenges such as traffic conditions, industry setbacks, and economic uncertainties, the market is expanding in urban and suburban areas. AL algorithms, smart traffic signals, dedicated lanes, and communication networks are improving traffic flow and safety. Autonomous Level 4 shuttles are gaining traction, offering last-mile connectivity and transforming public transportation solutions. Transit agencies and companies are embracing Mobility as a Service, leveraging hardware and software innovations to create seamless and safe autonomous bus experiences. The market is rapidly evolving with advanced technologies such as Ultrasonic, LIDARs, and ADAS like AEB, BSD, and ACC enhancing safety and efficiency. These buses offer on-demand services, are often electric or powered by clean energy, significantly reducing GHG emissions and carbon emissions compared to fossil fuel-based mobility. Safety is a top priority, with a focus on passenger safety and reducing incidents or accidents caused by human error. Transit agencies and companies like VDL Groep and Schaeffer are leading the charge in providing autonomous transportation solutions that improve road safety and lane-keeping assistance.

Market Scope
Report Coverage	Details
Page number	171
Base year	2023
Historic period	2018-2022
Forecast period	2024-2028
Growth momentum & CAGR	Accelerate at a CAGR of 21.86%
Market Growth 2024-2028	USD 2.29 billion
Market structure	Fragmented
YoY growth 2023-2024(%)	20.8
Regional analysis	North America, APAC, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and South America
Performing market contribution	North America at 40%
Key countries	US, China, Japan, Germany, and UK
Competitive landscape	Leading Companies, Market Positioning of Companies, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks
Key companies profiled	Aptiv Plc, Aurrigo, BYD Co. Ltd., Coast Autonomous Inc., DeepBlue Technology Shanghai Co. Ltd., Easymile SAS, Lilee Technology Inc., Mercedes Benz Group AG, Navya SA, NFI Group Inc., Proterra Inc., Robert Bosch GmbH, Toyota Motor Corp., Transdev Group SA, Xiamen King Long United Automotive Industry Co. Ltd., AB Volvo, Baidu Apollo Network Beijing Limited, Continental AG, Yutong Bus Co. Ltd., and ZF Friedrichshafen AG
Market dynamics	Parent market analysis, Market growth inducers and obstacles, Fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and Market condition analysis for the forecast period.
Customization purview	If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Download PDF Sample

What are the Key Data Covered in this Market Research Report?

• CAGR of the market during the forecast period
• Detailed information on factors that will drive the market growth and forecasting between 2023 and 2028
• Precise estimation of the market  size and its contribution to the market in focus on the parent market
• Accurate predictions about upcoming market growth trends and changes in consumer behavior
• Growth of the market across North America, APAC, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and South America
• Thorough analysis of the market’s competitive landscape and detailed information about companies
• Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of market companies

We can help! Our analysts can customize this market research report to meet your requirements. 

Get in touch