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The ethylene market size is forecast to increase by USD 57.7 billion, at a CAGR of 6.27% between 2023 and 2028.
The polyethylene market's growth relies on various factors. Rising demand and increased consumer awareness across diverse industries, coupled with the expansion of the flexible packaging industry and a growing emphasis on recyclability, are key drivers. The market's growth rate is also influenced by emerging trends such as the adoption of lightweight plastics by large- and small-scale cosmetic companies, the utilization of polyvinyl chloride in various applications, and the environmental concerns associated with single-use plastics and their link to natural gas and shale gas extraction. These factors contribute to the polyethylene market's dynamics and shape its future trajectory.
| Page Number | 185 |
| Forecast period | 2024-2028 |
| Historic period | 2018-2022 |
| List of Exhibits | 203 |
| Growth momentum & CAGR | Accelerate at a CAGR of 6.27% |
| Market Growth 2024-2028 | USD 57.7 billion |
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The report includes a comprehensive outlook on the market offering forecasts for the industry segmented by Feedstock, which comprises naphtha, ethane, LPG, and others. Additionally, it categorizes Applications into LDPE, HDPE, ethylene oxide, vinyls, and others, and covers Region, including North America, APAC, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and South America. The report provides market size, historical data spanning from 2018 to 2022, and future projections, all presented in terms of value in USD billion for each of the mentioned segments.
The market share growth by the naphtha segment will be significant during the forecast years. However, the segment is likely to lose its share during the forecast period, as ethylene produced by the thermal cracking of naphtha is an energy-intensive process. The process produces large amounts of coke and nitrogen oxide and emits carbon dioxide as well. Production of one kilogram of ethylene emits 1.8-2 kilograms of carbon dioxide.
The naphtha segment was the largest and was valued at USD 53.20 billion in 2018. Europe and APAC are the leading users of naphtha for ethylene production. The process used to produce ethylene using naphtha is similar to the process where ethylene is produced using ethane. The hydrocarbon (naphtha) is cracked by mixing it with steam and sending it through tubes in a cracking furnace, where it is quickly heated to very high temperatures. Subsequently, the cracked gas is immediately quenched and separated by separating columns, resulting in ethylene. The production of ethylene using naphtha is energy-intensive and is not a preferred choice. Ethylene production using ethane and LPG requires less energy. These factors can hinder the growth of the naphtha segment of the market during the forecast period.
Based on the application, the market has been segmented into LDPE, HDPE, ethylene oxide, vinyl, and others. The LDPE segment will account for the largest share of this segment.?The trend is likely to continue throughout the forecast period. LDPE has low density (0.910-0.925 g/cm3), and its molecular structure comprises long branches. LDPE films are flexible and economical and provide excellent protection for packaged food and beverages, consumer goods, and electronics. LDPE is extensively used to produce clear bakery films and bags. LLDPE is mainly used in thin films that are used in the F&B sectors. It is extensively used in the production of agricultural films, heavy-duty sacks, stretch films, freezer films, laminations, heavy-duty bags, and overwraps. These factors will drive the growth of the LDPE segment of the market during the forecast period.
The ethylene market is a vital component of the petrochemical industry, driving the production capacity of various chemicals such as ethylene dichloride, ethylene vinyl acetate and ethylene propylene. Ethylene serves as a key precursor in the manufacture of polyethylene, essential in packaging solutions demanded by consumers worldwide. Amid developments in industrial facilities and construction improvement, the market experiences fluctuations in supply and costs influenced by factors like consumers' awareness and consumer demand. However, challenges arise with the spread of the virus impacting high-end industrial applications and processed food and beverages sectors. Despite this, the ethylene market remains pivotal in supplying materials for diverse sectors including textile, rubber & plastics, and agrochemical industries. Our researchers analyzed the market research and growth data with 2023 as the base year, along with the key market growth analysis, trends, and challenges. A holistic analysis of drivers, trends, and challenges will help companies refine their marketing strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
The rapid industrialization and urbanization trends are fueling the expansion of the flexible packaging market. One of the primary growth drivers is the surging demand for packaging materials, particularly from sectors like food and beverages, as well as consumer goods, electronics, and pharmaceuticals. LDPE and LLDPE, commonly used in flexible packaging, find extensive applications across various industries, including F&B, consumer products, and medical products. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, led by emerging economies like China and India, is anticipated to dominate the global flexible packaging market, closely trailed by Europe and North America.
Furthermore, the robust expansion of the APAC market is spurred by the burgeoning F&B sector. The pervasive utilization of plastics in packaging solutions is poised to amplify the demand for flexible packaging, consequently driving the consumption of LLDPE and LDPE and fostering the growth of the market throughout the forecast period.
Increasing innovation in the packaging sector is an emerging trend shaping the market growth. The packaging industry is characterized by innovations. Modified atmosphere packaging (MAP), high-barrier flexible packaging, and smart packaging materials drive the packaging industry. The increase in the consumption of ready-made packaged foods drives the demand that can preserve the contents for a longer period. MAP is one such type of packaging that increases the shelf life of foods that are minimally processed. Further, high-barrier flexible packaging contains high-barrier resins that protect food from moisture and oxygen and increase shelf life.
Moreover, the major types of high-barrier plastics that are used for the development of such packaging include biaxially oriented polyethylene terephthalate (BOPET) and ethylene-vinyl alcohol (EVA). Smart packaging materials can identify a change in the external environment, and if the environment is not conducive to the safety of the product, the packaging materials are equipped to take remedial measures such as altering moisture and oxygen content and communicating to an external communication device to protect the product. These factors will drive the growth of the market during the forecast period.
Decreasing the use of plastics is a significant challenge hindering market development. Environmental concerns regarding the use of plastic packaging for various applications will be a serious challenge to the market. Ethylene is widely used in the packaging sector, and bans imposed on plastic products can hamper the production of ethylene. Most countries, including the US, Germany, Japan, and France, have banned or limited the use of plastics and their derivatives for various packaging purposes. In many developed countries, various government regulations and policies on the use of plastic packaging are already in place.
However, other developing nations such as India, Brazil, and Indonesia are expected to follow. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted during the production of plastic packaging materials can pose a threat to the environment. Therefore, decreasing the use of plastics will hinder the market growth and trends during the forecast period.
Ethylene is a commodity hydrocarbon gas derived from petroleum sources such as ethane, naphtha, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). It is colorless, flammable, and has a sweet odor. Globally, it is used as a building block for a range of petrochemical.
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APAC is estimated to contribute 42% to the growth of the global market during the projection period. Technavio's analysts have provided extensive insight into the market forecasting, detailing the regional trends and drivers influencing the market's trajectory throughout the projection period.
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Further, one of the major drivers of the market in the region is the increasing use of plastic for packaging and construction in China, India, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Japan. The growth of the retail and e-commerce industries is a key driver of the market in this region. Ethylene is a key building block in the petrochemical industry and is primarily used in the production of plastics, fibers, and various chemical products. Economic growth and the increasing middle-class population are the key contributors to the retail and e-commerce industry in the region. The retail industry in the region is expected to grow at a rate of more than 7.9%, with China and India as the major contributors. In terms of retail sales (by volume), China, India, Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia were the leading countries in the region in 2023. The retail food industry in APAC is expected to post a growth rate higher than 12.8%.
In addition, China is focusing on the sustainable development of its economy, including the development of its transportation and energy sectors, urban development, and rural development. Such factors are likely to drive the construction sector, thereby increasing the demand for PVC. With the growth in construction sectors, the demand for ethylene is also expected to rise during the forecast period.
Companies are implementing various market growth and forecasting strategies by analyzing factors such as strategic alliances, partnerships, mergers and acquisitions, geographical expansion, and product or service launches, to enhance their presence in the market.
BASF SE - The company offers ethylene for manufacturing polyethylene, ethylene chloride, and ethylene oxide.
Major players in the ethylene market include ExxonMobil, Dow Chemical Company, and Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC). Additionally, the report also includes detailed analyses of the competitive landscape of the market and information about 15 market companies, including BASF SE, Braskem SA, Chevron Corp., China National Petroleum Corp., Eastman Chemical Co., , Formosa Plastics Group, Huntsman International LLC, Koch Industries Inc., LyondellBasell Industries N.V., Merck KGaA, Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corp., Mitsui Chemicals Inc., NOVA Chemicals Corp., Reliance Industries Ltd., Shell plc, Sumitomo Chemical Co. Ltd., and TotalEnergies SE
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Qualitative and quantitative analysis of companies has been conducted to help clients understand the wider business environment as well as the strengths and weaknesses of key market players. Data is qualitatively analyzed to categorize companies as pure play, category-focused, industry-focused, and diversified; it is quantitatively analyzed to categorize companies as dominant, leading, strong, tentative, and weak.
The market is a dynamic sector with diverse applications across industries such as packaging, building, automobiles, and more. Ethylene Benzene and Ethylene Glycol serves as a fundamental component in the production of polyethylene, a versatile material widely used in packaging, building materials, and automotive parts. Additionally, the market sees a growing demand for bio-based products as sustainability becomes a priority.
Price fluctuations in the petroleum sector and the global economic slump impact ethylene production and pricing, affecting various industries reliant on ethylene derivatives. Despite challenges, the market witnesses continuous innovation, including the development of green polyethylene compounds and biomaterials.
Government regulations drive the adoption of circular economy practices and encourage the use of sustainable materials. Meanwhile, advancements in sterilization techniques in the medical industry enhance the safety of ethylene-based products. The pandemic has reshaped demand dynamics, with increased emphasis on safe packaged goods and consumer awareness. Industries respond with premium food packaging and consumer convenience solutions. Moreover, the market sees expanding applications in the agricultural, medical, and cosmetic sectors. Despite challenges posed by the pandemic, low prices and widespread availability of plastic consumer goods drive market resilience. With its versatility and widespread applicability, remains a crucial component in various industries, offering lightweight and high-quality packaging solutions for a range of consumer and industrial needs.
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The research report provides comprehensive data (region wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in "USD Billion" for the period 2024 to 2028, as well as historical data from 2018 to 2023 for the following segments.
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Market Scope |
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Report Coverage |
Details |
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Base year |
2023 |
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Market structure |
Fragmented |
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YoY growth 2023-2024(%) |
5.76 |
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Regional analysis |
APAC, North America, Middle East and Africa, Europe, and South America |
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Performing market contribution |
APAC at 42% |
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Key countries |
US, China, Japan, India, and Germany |
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Competitive landscape |
Leading Companies, Market Positioning of Companies, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks |
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Key companies profiled |
BASF SE, Braskem SA, Chevron Corp., China National Petroleum Corp., Dow Chemical Co., Eastman Chemical Co., Exxon Mobil Corp., Formosa Plastics Group, Huntsman International LLC, Koch Industries Inc., LyondellBasell Industries N.V., Merck KGaA, Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corp., Mitsui Chemicals Inc., NOVA Chemicals Corp., Reliance Industries Ltd., Saudi Basic Industries Corp., Shell plc, Sumitomo Chemical Co. Ltd., and TotalEnergies SE |
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Market dynamics |
Parent market analysis, Market growth inducers and obstacles, Fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and Market condition analysis for the forecast period. |
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Customization purview |
If our ethylene markets report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized. |
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1 Executive Summary
2 Market Landscape
3 Market Sizing
4 Historic Market Size
5 Five Forces Analysis
6 Market Segmentation by Feedstock
7 Market Segmentation by Application
8 Customer Landscape
9 Geographic Landscape
10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends
11 Vendor Landscape
12 Vendor Analysis
13 Appendix
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